๐ Top 10 Market Research Reports
Where capital flows. How the best build.
๐ Hey, Iโm Ivan. I write about startups and investingโfocusing on where capital flows and the playbooks of the top 1% of founders and investors.
Welcome to a Capital Flow edition of Startup Riders. Todayโs tl;dr:
๐ Top 10 AI reports you need to read
๐ This weekโs 10 biggest AI signals
๐ State of Venture Capital markets
๐ 120+ YC startups, 6 winning AI bets
๐ Perplexityโs CBO on the future of sales
๐ Karpathy on Software 3.0 + the next UX
๐ Pete (YC) on why AI overlays wonโt win
๐ A mental model + quote to reflect on
๐ 10 AI startup ideas
๐ Top 10 Market Research Reports
ICONIQ โ 2025 State of AI
Gartner โ Agentic AI Reprint
Stripe - Indexing the AI Economy
Coatue โ 2025 EMW Keynote Replay
SignalFire โ State of Tech Talent Report 2025
Bond Capital โ Trends in Artificial Intelligence
McKinsey & Company โ Seizing the Agentic AI Advantage
Andreessen Horowitz โ How CIOs Are Buying GenAI in 2025
๐ Whatโs Happened in AI
360ยบ view on what mattered in AI last week:
OpenAI ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ง-5 ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐๐ผ ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.
Apple ๐ถ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด Perplexity ๐๐ผ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต.
Meta ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐บ๐ ๐๐ฝ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต Oakley ๐๐ผ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ ๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐น๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐๐ต๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐.
๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐ ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ $15๐โlabelling, evals, and agent stack.
Mistral AI ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ด๐ถ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐นโits first multilingual reasoning model.
ElevenLabs ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฝ๐น๐๐ด-๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ-๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐
๐ State of Venture: Bill Gurley (Ex-Benchmark)
What Happened
Bill Gurley dropped a clinic on the state of venture capital on Invest Like The Best.
The Details
๐ ๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ ๐ณ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐๐ฒ๐บ. VCs used to be $500M early-stage firms. Now theyโre $5B asset managers writing $300M late-stage checks. The game shifted.
1,000+ ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ฒ ๐๐ป๐ถ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ป๐ = ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐น. Startups that raised billions with fake growth, no exits, and marks from 2021. Nobody wants to mark them down, not VCs, not LPs, not founders. So they sit there unprofitable, unacquired, and often unscalable.
๐๐ฃ๐ข ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐ผ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐๐ (๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ป ๐ก๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ค ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฝ 30%). Weโve never seen public markets boom while IPOs are frozen. Why? Private markets got too good. Liquidity rounds replaced going public. Stripe, Databricks, OpenAI and so on, staying private is now a strategy.
๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐๐น๐ ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐๐. Yale is selling $6B in private equity. Harvardโs out too.
๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ต. Everyone was tightening budgets, running lean. Then LLMs hit. Now capital is flooding back in but itโs not discipline, itโs more like FOMO dressed as innovation.
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ-๐๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ด๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ. Some funds offer massive private checks + founder liquidity. No IPO required. Feels great now. But public market discipline is gone and founders are surrounded by yes-men.
๐ง๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ธ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐. Liquidity used to take 5โ7 years. Now it's 10โ15. Add dilution + high cost of capital = your $100M exit needs to be $250M just to match old returns.
๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ-๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐. Elon called it first principles. Gurley calls it a gavage tube. You raise because someone offers. Then youโre trapped in a burn war vs a competitor who took the same deal.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ปโ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฆ. ๐๐โ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐. Gurleyโs bullish on use-case-specific AI: legal, coding, support, regulated spaces.
So What?
Seed to Series A is the hardest leap right now: We talked about how the number of actual rounds raised in Series A is well below 2021 peaks.
Seems like the VC barbell might be real: giants a-la a16z and artisans (small teams, small funds) will survive. Everyone else might get squeezed or suffer.
Staying private feels safe but has hidden costs: IPOs forced discipline, revealed truths. Without that pressure, unscalable companies stay alive too long. Liquidity dries up. M&A slows. Time quietly kills returns.
LPs are pulling back: Not just because of returns but because capital is locked up for too long, and too many zombie portfolios arenโt getting marked down. That means fewer new funds, and tighter founder <> fund fit.