Agreed on the easy part of LLMs being behind us. Improvement in AI models will be marginal after one point. Even the 71% GDPval of GPT-5.2 is going to mean little to most of the users.
What companies will need to do now is generate internal data to train models in grounding context. The experiments they conduct, the insights they store, and the data they generate is what will make companies unique.
Thank you for listing all of these issues together. I've seen them discussed separately and have wondered how many other people are thinking the way I am about them. Hard to believe Paul Krugman was involved with something useful. His New York Times commentary was not.
Excellent post! I didn't know what "dutch disease" was but now it makes sense.
Great to see all these different points laid out so clear and well presented.
I and my biz partner are building something in this space that is of real value even beyond the "AI hype". Let's hope it gives good results before the burst 🫧
Wild. There’s a moment where “AI-native” stops being a category and is just software and i wonder: 1. how far we are from that point and 2. where scarcity shifts after that.
Agreed on the easy part of LLMs being behind us. Improvement in AI models will be marginal after one point. Even the 71% GDPval of GPT-5.2 is going to mean little to most of the users.
What companies will need to do now is generate internal data to train models in grounding context. The experiments they conduct, the insights they store, and the data they generate is what will make companies unique.
There's an excellent interview of Bob McGrew on this: https://youtu.be/Zyw-YA0k3xo?si=q3hQ56-pLJWTBH3n
Thank you for listing all of these issues together. I've seen them discussed separately and have wondered how many other people are thinking the way I am about them. Hard to believe Paul Krugman was involved with something useful. His New York Times commentary was not.
Thanks Byron!
Excellent post! I didn't know what "dutch disease" was but now it makes sense.
Great to see all these different points laid out so clear and well presented.
I and my biz partner are building something in this space that is of real value even beyond the "AI hype". Let's hope it gives good results before the burst 🫧
Thanks Juan!
Our estimate is 65% of all VC capital is going to AI Native. Everything else fighting over the 35%. Like Consumer is down from 30% to 6% 🤯
Wild. There’s a moment where “AI-native” stops being a category and is just software and i wonder: 1. how far we are from that point and 2. where scarcity shifts after that.
i need this as a guest post. you went off here
thank you my friend! I'd be honoured! Lets do it.
Put on Google doc and send me
Here you go: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JnA2xB0sABLIG7Ure41Fug8dobo-Yu4RES8u-4FCe_4/edit?usp=sharing
Great summary! Was aware of most of the individual knots but very nice to see it laid out there in whole 🙌
Thank you Jonas!