🌊 The New Rules of Raising
What founders can learn from April’s capital flow, why the AI stack is shifting, and how not to break your cap table
👋 Hey! I’m Ivan. I break down ideas and research from the top 1% of founders and VCs—so you can surf trends, build smarter, and raise better.
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🌊 RAISE
→ Where AI seed capital went in April (22 EU deals decoded)
→ How to raise in a barbell market (Redpoint data)
→ What $5B+ startups looked like at Series A
🌊 START
→ How to hire (or be) high-agency talent
→ Why Theory of Change beats Theory of Action
🌊 GROW
→ 80/20 guide to useful startup boards
→ Macro shifts founders can’t afford to ignore
+ Iberian Dealflow: 20+ Spain-based startups raised in April
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🌊 Where EU AI Seed Capital Is Flowing (April-25)
What Happened
I looked at 22+ AI startups that raised Seed rounds across Europe last month. I did a fast breakdown of the data—and a few key trends stood out.
The Details
Avg. seed round: $3.83M | Median: $2.84M
Median valuation (20% dilution): ~$14M
Infra plays emerging: 5 companies are building enablers, not end-user apps
No winner vertical: Health, fintech, legal, HR all represented—but no breakout
Investor landscape: No dominant leads; mostly micro-funds or early-stage specialists
Geography: 🇬🇧 UK: 26% of rounds, 🇫🇷 France: 21%, 🇩🇪 Germany & 🇪🇸 Spain . No single European hub is winning—AI innovation is diffusing
Likely seeing a strategic broadening of the AI stack. Founders are building infrastructure, not just “AI-for-X” clones. Few consumer apps. Mostly tools, enablers, and agentic primitives.
Here’s the list:
Emmi AI (AI physics architecture) raised $17M
Qevlar AI (autonomous security) raised $10M
pyannoteAI (Dev speaker intelligence) raised $8M
Diagnoly (Health AI) raised $6M
REMATIQ (AI Compliance) raised $5M
Portia AI (Agentic frameworks) raised $5M
Mindset AI (Agent PaaS) raised $5M
TaxDown (AI assisted tax) raised $5M
Capably AI (AI Automation) raised $4M
Harmonix (AI CRM) raised $3M
Zeno AI (AI legal) raised $2,3M
TaxZap (AI tax reporting) raised $2M
Delos (AI workspace) raised $2M
CleanMob (telematics) raised $1.4M
Kardi Ai (AI for health) raised $1.2M
boby.ai (AI apps) raised $1.2M
Assiduous (AI fintech) raised $1.1M
Etiq AI (data science copilot) raised $1M
Foliume (AI insurance) raised $1M
Kalent (AI recruiter) raised $1M
Spotlight Pathology (Medical AI) raised $500K
SUBJCT (Automated linking) raise undisclosed.
So What?
If you’re building or raising in AI, here’s what to learn from these rounds:
There’s opportunity to be early in a new stack layer
Don’t just “add AI” to a category, own the wedge
Specialist funds are writing checks, find your thesis-aligned micro-VC
You don’t need to be in London or Paris, but you do need sharp narrative + team signal
I’m actively investing in infra, agents, and early AI primitives. If you’re building something with leverage—DM me.
🌊 Private Market Updates
What Happened
Redpoint dropped one of the clearest data sets on the current funding environment—and it confirms what many feel:
AI is accelerating, while everything else is stuck.
The Details
Only 9% of S&P tech companies expected to grow >20% this year
SaaS multiples bifurcated → 14.7x (top tier) vs. 4.7x (median)
Private deal volume is up—but valuation compression still real
AI startups hit $5M ARR in 24 months (SaaS avg = 37 months)
+39% valuation premiums at Series B/C for AI
Top 20 VC deals = majority of capital deployed
72% of unicorns haven’t raised an up round since 2021 → stuck in “Zombieland”
IPO bar remains brutal → $500M+ revenue and profitability
GenAI budgets expected to 3x by 2028 → $401B projected spend
“Service-as-Software” shift → usage-based, outcome-driven pricing replacing seats
So What?
Infra and agentic platforms are commanding real capital, fast growth, and premium multiples
This isn’t (just?) a bull market but likely a barbell market where you’re either in the breakout bucket or you're stuck. This data from Peter Walker shows something interesting, in his words:
The number of actual rounds raised in Seed and Series A is well below 2021 peaks, especially for Series A.
On the one hand, AI bullishness is pushing up the valuations of AI-native early stage companies, which dominate headlines, which paint a rosy picture of startupland.
On the other, due diligence is taking longer than ever, many funds are not really investing, founders are struggling to find investors and some investors are struggling to win the deals they most want.
Redpoint’s full report — one of the few that cuts through the noise.🌊 What $5B+ Startups Looked Like at Series A
What Happened
Cole Rotman pulled together a clean dataset on what the breakout companies of the last decade actually looked like at Series A—and it challenges how most founders think about valuation, round size, and who gets into “elite” cap tables.
The Analysis
Median Series A valuation (2012–2016): $19M
Most were raised below $30M—many under $15M
Benchmark led ~1 in 3 of these A rounds
Just 9 firms led over half of all $5B+ Series As
Y Combinator seeded more of these than any other backer
Today’s market is much frothier but the best companies didn’t raise at crazy prices early. They stayed lean, fast, and high-signal.
We’ll see how this keeps evolving, especially in “all things AI”, which as discussed is almost a separate category in terms of pricing right now.
So What / my 2 cents?
One of the most under-discussed risks in early-stage: raising too much, too early. I'm not saying you should take dilution for the sake of it. But I am saying this, ask yourself:
“Can I 2–3x this valuation in 18 months?”
If not, you're likely borrowing from your future self—and deferring a harder conversation. Cap tables get bloated. Valuations outpace traction. And when momentum breaks, it’s brutally hard to recover.
But here’s the nuance—this AI wave might produce a new category of startup: Ones that scale so explosively and profitably, they may only need to raise once. That’s real. But unless you have extreme clarity that you’re in that bucket: Assume you’re not.
Raise to set up your next round, not to skip it. Your Seed isn’t a win, it’s a wedge. Keep your Series A clean, competitive, and priced to win. Optimize for speed, signal, and story—not optics.
🌊 How to spot high agency talent
Based on one of the best things I’ve read on the internet this year by George Mack:
🌊 Theory of Change Mental Model
Most early-stage teams operate from action.
The best founders operate from change.
This model flips your weekly priorities — from Aaron Swartz:
Theory of Change > Theory of Action
1. Theory of action: Start with what you know how to do → Write a post, build a deck, launch a feature
3. Theory of change: Start with the outcome you want → Work backwards until you hit a lever you control
🌊 Economic Shifts founders should care about
Larry Summers (ex-U.S. Treasury Secretary, former Harvard President) just dropped one of the sharpest macro breakdowns I’ve heard.
My 1-pager summary of his conversation with Niall Ferguson.
🌊 80/20 guide to boards
Most early-stage startup boards are a waste of time.
Here’s the 80/20 guide to making them worth it:
💵 Iberian Deals
Want to move to Spain? Well-funded startups from April 2025:
• krea.ai (GenAI platform) raised $83M.
• Sateliot (IoT satellites) raised €70M.
• MyInvestor (neobank) raised €30M.
• DeudaFix (debt) raised €25M.
• Salsa (payroll APIs) raised €17.4M.
• KERIONICS (hydrogen electrolyzers) raised €12M
• Gaiarooms (hospitality tech) raised €10M.
• WANNME (fintech) secured €7M in credit.
• Cakewalk (AI security agents) raised $7.5M.
• Harmonix (AI communications) raised €3.2M.
• Spotahome (long-term rentals) raised €5M.
• Acoru (cybersecurity) raised €4M.
• TaxDown (tax filing) raised €4M.
• Capably (automation platform) raised $4M.
• The Channel Store (TV apps) raised €2M.
• Inversiva (proptech) raised €1.2M.
• Foliume (insurtech) raised nearly €1M.
• Turicleta (mobility) raised €500K.
• Deporwell (healthtech) raised €400K.
• MasLeads (lead generation SaaS) raised €400K.
• MUXUNAV (navigation tech) raised €400K.
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🍫 Meme-ology
Hi Ivan,
Discovered your newsletter via LinkedIn today! Super thrilled to be here as our interests and writing overlaps. This is an interesting take, recently I did a piece about May funding rounds. There's a comprehensive review from Bain released in May 2025 capturing the capital flow, funding etc., a good read.
If you ever feel like collaborating or working together on an idea - say detailed analysis or report or research, count me in. :)
Cheers
Great one!